NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
WRITTEN REPLY
QUESTION 865
DATE OF PUBLICATION: FRIDAY 18 MARCH 2011 [IQP No 08-2011] SECOND SESSION,
FOURTH PARLIAMENT
Question 865 for written reply: National Assembly, Ms D Carter (Cope) to
ask the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries:
Whether her department has succeeded in ensuring food security by
supporting farmers to meet the countryâs need for (a) chicken, (b) beef,
(c) dairy produce, (d) grains and cereals and (e) oil seeds; if not, (i)
what quantities of the above essential foods were being imported, (ii) what
percentage of the total demand did the imports constitute, (iii) where did
the imports originate from in each instance, (iv) what was the cost of
these imports and (v) why has the Government become dependent on imports of
these essential foods? NW942E
REPLY:
A - Beef Production in South Africa
Table 1 below show that South Africa does not produce enough beef for the
domestic market even if the number of cattle slaughtered has increased
considerably from 1998/9 to 2007/08.
Table 1: Total cattle slaughtering, production and consumption of beef
|Period |Slaughtered Cattle |Production |Consumption |
| |Number |Kilograms |Kilograms |
|1998/99 |1,756,384 |512,000,000 |560,000,000 |
|1999/00 |2,121,988 |625,000,000 |671,000,000 |
|2000/01 |1,735,102 |525,000,000 |555,000,000 |
|2001/02 |1,933,610 |574,000,000 |603,000,000 |
|2002/03 |1,958,447 |610,000,000 |644,000,000 |
|2003/04 |1,985,107 |632,000,000 |675,000,000 |
|2004/05 |1,981,505 |672,000,000 |723,000,000 |
|2005/06 |2,266,932 |763,900,000 |822,000,000 |
|2006/07 |2,314,566 |836,700,000 |897,000,000 |
|2007/08 |2,140,250 |808,800,000 |859,000,000 |
A large percentage of beef animals is supplied by feedlots. Imports of red
meat decreased by 11, 5% from 50 123 tons in 2008/09 to 44 378 tons in
2009/10 (25, 4% lower than the average of approximately 59 522 tons for the
five years up to 2009/10).
Imports: Beef imports amounted to 7 961 tons, an increase of 8, 5% from
the 7 338 tons imported during 2008/09, but 41, 3% lower than the five-year
average of 13 568 tons up to 2009/10.
B - Chicken Production in South Africa
According to the report from Agricultural Statistics produced in 2011,
Poultry meat domestic production has been increasing between year 2005 and
2009
|Year |Poultry meat |
|Unit |1 000 t |
|2005 |1,109.02 |
|2006 |1,176.46 |
|2007 |1,223.45 |
|2008 |1,327.56 |
|2009 |1,371.40 |
|2010 |1,413.94 |
| | |
In 2009, poultry meat imports increased to 231 303 tons â an increase of
4,3% from the 221 661 tons imported in 2008.
Imports: The imports of broiler meat from January to June 2010 was 127 902
tons â an increase of 10, 3% from the same period in 2009. During 2009,
about 72% of South African poultry imports originated from Brazil and 14%
came from Argentina.
C- Grain and cereal production
Summer grain
The projected closing stocks of maize for the current 2010/11 marketing
season is 2,840 million tons, which is 33,3% more than the previous season
(2,131 million tons). This increase can mainly be attributed to the higher
production of maize during the 2009/10 production season.
Exports: Important export destinations are the BLNS countries (Botswana,
Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland), Zimbabwe and Mozambique. The first half of
the 2010/11 season also shows exports to, inter alia, Kenya, Korea, Kuwait,
Somalia and Spain. South Africa normally has the capacity to cover the
maize import needs of neighboring countries experiencing shortages.
Normally, the window of opportunity for exports of domestic maize lasts
only until the end of October, when the harvesting of the US crop and US
exports start.
Closing stocks of sorghum at the end of March 2011 are estimated at 44 200
tons, which is considerable less (52, 6%) than the previous season (93 200
tons). This decrease can mainly be attributed to the smaller sorghum crop
of the 2009/10 production season. South Africa, a net importer of wheat,
relies on imports from, inter alia, Argentina, Canada and the USA to meet
its domestic demand. During the 2009/10 season, approximately 65% of the
wheat that was needed for domestic consumption was produced locally, while
an estimated 1,3 million tons were imported.
2010/11 Projected Annual Grain and Cereal Balance Sheet as at 28 February
2011 (1 000 tons)
| |Maize (May to April) |Sorghum (April |
| | |to March) |
| |White |Yellow |Total | |
|Supply |
|Opening stocks |1 362 |769 |2 131 |93,2 |
|SAGIS Opening Stocks |1 362 |769 |2 131 |93,2 |
|Gross production |8 252 |5 169 |13 421 |235,9 |
|Commercial production |7 830 |4 985 |12 815 |196,5 |
|Subsistence agriculture |422 |184 |606 |39,4 |
|Total domestic supply |9 614 |5 938 |15 552 |329,1 |
|Plus: Imports |- |- |- |- |
|Total supply |9 614 |5 938 |15 552 |329,1 |
|Demand |
|Consumption |6 128 |4 018 |10 146 |213,6 |
|Commercial: Human |4 200 |340 |4 540 |182,8 |
|Animal (feed) |1 500 |2 800 |4 300 |8,8 |
|Gristing |60 |20 |80 |- |
|Seed for planting purposes |16 |14 |30 |- |
|Other (grains released to |352 |844 |1 196 |22,0 |
|end-consumers + withdrawn by | | | | |
|producers + retentions on | | | | |
|farms) | | | | |
|Subsistence agriculture |422 |184 |606 |39,4 |
|Total domestic consumption |6 550 |4 202 |10 752 |253,0 |
|Plus: Exports |860 |1 100 |1 960 |31,9 |
|Products |60 |50 |110 |- |
|Whole maize |800 |1 050 |1 850 |- |
|Total demand |7 410 |5 302 |12 712 |284,9 |
|Closing stocks (2011) |2 204 |636 |2 840 |44,2 |
|Pipeline requirements (45 |710 |390 |1 100 |23,6 |
|days of commercial | | | | |
|consumption) | | | | |
|Domestic surplus |2 354 |1 346 |3 700 |52,5 |
|Surplus/ shortage above |1 494 |246 |1 740 |20,6 |
|pipeline | | | | |
|SAGIS closing stocks as at |3 690 |1 528 |5 218 |86,3 |
|end of January 2011 | | | | |
From 1 May 2010 up to 25 February 2011, the progressive white and yellow
maize exports stands at 647 529 and 895 037 tons, respectively. This brings
the progressive grand total of exports to 1,543 million tons (Source:
SAGIS).
It is important to note that for the current marketing season yellow maize
exports surpassed white maize exports. White maize exports thus, has to
increase as it is specifically white maize that has a high ending stock for
the mentioned marketing season.
The projected closing stocks of wheat for the 2010/11 marketing season is
519 000 tons, which is 10,4% less than the previous season (579 000 tons).
This decrease can mainly be attributed to the smaller wheat crop for the
current 2010/11 marketing season.
D - Dairy Products in South Africa (2008/9-2010/11)
|Year |Butter |
|March to | |
|February2| |
| | | | | | | | |
|2000/01 |8 923 |8 926 |35 281 |35 331 |20 221 |10 369 |8 112 |
| | | | | | | | |
|2001/02 |10 961 |10 964 |37 752 |37 802 |23 376 |12 728 |12 078 |
| | | | | | | | |
|2002/03 |8 531 |8 534 |35 200 |35 250 |24 066 |12 500 |19 086 |
| | | | | | | | |
|2003/04 |11 231 |11 234 |36 717 |36 767 |24 851 |12 290 |12 455 |
| | | | | | | | |
|2004/05 |12 814 |12 817 |36 832 |36 882 |25 125 |15 272 |13 138 |
| | | | | | | | |
|2005/06 |* |* |* |* |* |* |* |
|2006/07 |* |* |* |* |* |* |* |
|2007/08 |* |* |* |* |* |* |* |
|2008/09 |* |* |* |* |* |* |* |
The imports of milk and milk products decreased by 3, 4%, from 37 664 tons
in 2008 to 36 389 tons during 2009. In 2010, the imports of dairy products
were expected to decrease by 66, 8% to 12 077 tons, owing to improvement in
local milk production.
E - Oil Seeds
During the 2009/10 production season, the bulk of the sunflower crop was
produced in the Free State (46%) and North West (37%) provinces. The
contribution of sunflower seed to the gross value of field crops during the
season is approximately 5, 6%, compared to the 47, 6% of maize â the
largest contributor.
Soya beans contribute approximately 4, 9% to the gross value of field
crops, and the estimated average annual
gross value of soya beans for the past five seasons up to 2009/10 amounts
to R106 million.
The contribution of groundnuts to the value of field crops is approximately
2,6% and the average annual gross value of groundnuts for the five years up
to 2009/10 amounts to approximately R536 million.
While the estimated area planted to canola decreased by 0, 7% from 35 060
ha in 2009 to 34 820 ha in 2010, production is expected to decrease by 1,
7% from 40 350 tons to 39 650 tons. The decrease in production can most
likely be ascribed to a number of factors, with the main one probably being
low and fluctuating yields. During this period, some canola producers in
the Western Cape experienced extensive damage by slugs and isopods.
Reasons why South Africa is importing
While 13% of South Africa's land can be used for crop production, only 22%
of this is high-potential arable land. The most important limiting factor
is the availability of water. Rainfall is distributed unevenly across the
country, with some areas prone to drought. Almost 50% of South Africa's
water is used for agriculture, with about 1.3-million hectares under
irrigation.
Even though today, South Africa is not only self-sufficient in virtually
all major agricultural products, but is also a net food exporter. Most of
these essential foods are imported.
According to the DAFF report on Agricultural Trends (2010) The area to be
planted for grains and cereals in the production seasons is usually
influenced by a combination of factors such as relatively low producer
price levels, the above-average crop harvested during the past three
seasons, high stock levels and relatively high production costs. Farmers
sometimes plant less crops e.g. maize owing to the huge surplus of maize
experienced in the country. According to the South African Agricultural
Baseline projections published by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural
Policy (BFAP). Because of the surplus, maize prices dropped, leaving
farmers with excess maize that they could not sell at a reasonable price.
South Africa imports large amounts of meat. The opportunity for growth in
the meat industry still exists, not only because of expected growth in
demand for poultry meat, but also as imports make up a sizeable percentage
of consumption. Feed costs have always been a significant issue in the
poultry industry and remain so, even though prices of maize and soya as
well as the main raw materials in broiler feed have showed marked decreases
since 2009. Feed prices, however, did not show similar decreases. The
profit margins of the broiler industry are expected to remain tight. The
broiler industry is also experiencing pressure because of the downturn in
consumer spending. High imports remain a threat in the event of a weakening
in local demand. Milk production is expected to increase by 2, 4% during
2010. Demand for milk has also improved slightly since 2009. Producer
prices are expected to decline during the summer of 2010.