[pic]
Ref: 02/1/5/2
MINISTER
QUESTION NO. 1446 FOR WRITTEN REPLY: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
A draft reply to Mrs S V Kalyan (DA) to the above-mentioned question is
enclosed for your consideration.
Ms Nosipho Ngcaba
DIRECTOR-GENERAL
DATE:
DRAFT REPLY APPROVED/AMENDED
MRS B E E MOLEWA, MP
MINISTER OF WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS
DATE:
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
(For written reply)
QUESTION NO. 1446
INTERNAL QUESTION PAPER NO. 15 NW1722E
DATE OF PUBLICATION: 1 June 2012
Mrs S V Kalyan (DA) to ask the Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs:
What has been the estimated (a) growth in actual numbers and (b) natural
mortality of the (i) black rhino population and (ii) white rhino
population for each year since 2005?
Mrs S V Kalyan (DA)
SECRETARY TO PARLIAMENT
HANSARD
PAPERS OFFICE
PRESS
1446. THE MINISTER OF WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS ANSWERS:
We need to state that while questions like this one are important, their
responses are likely to communicate to those who poach our rhinos that all
is still well and cause them to become more aggressive in their
criminality. We all need to be sensitive to this challenge as a country,
that we donât attract most problems in the interest of openness and
transparency.
(a)(i)(ii) Estimated black and white rhino growth rates in South Africa:
South Africaâs total estimated numbers of black and white rhino in the
continental statistics compiled by the African Rhino Specialist Group of
the Species Survival Commission of the International Union for Conservation
of Nature are as follows:
Black rhino White rhino
As of 31 Dec 2005 1,379 13,521
As of 31 Dec 2007 1,488 16,273
As of 31 Dec 2010 1,915 18,796
(a)(i)(ii) Estimated exponential population growth rates:
It makes more sense to look at average growth rates over a period longer
than one year given the precision of some individual population estimates
and birth lag effects (given that we are dealing with species with
gestation periods longer than one year). The best fit net growth rates
that could account for the increases in numbers shown above over the 5-year
period 1 Jan 2006 to 31 Dec 2010 were:
Black rhino: â+5.63% per annum (+5.72% if one makes allowances for the
net export of 9 more black rhino over the period than were
imported); and
White rhino: â6.81% per annum
These figures are the net figure after any poaching, hunting, natural
mortalities and births.
Overall, the reproduction rate (r max) for rhinos (without a skewed age sex
structure) will be in the region of 8-9% and minimum conservation targets
are invariably set at 5% growth per annum. White rhinos on average appear
to breed a bit faster than black rhinos. With a skewed age and sex
structure it is possible for some populations to exceed the r max of 8-9%.
(b)(i)(ii) Mortality rates
On average, excluding the first four years after any introduction, the
average mortality rate for black rhinos in South Africa from 1989-2006 was
3.4%. Mortality rates however vary with age, densities and time since
translocation. For example, mortality rates are higher for very young and
very old rhinos.
Updated mortality rates for black rhino will be available once the latest
SADC RMG status report summary and synthesis is completed (sometime this
year). NB: the 5.72% average net annual growth rate in black rhino numbers
referred to above already takes into account normal and additional
(translocation, poaching, hunting) mortalities and reflects the net
increase in rhino numbers (i.e. by how much births are exceeding
mortalities in a year on average) after allowing for international
translocations.
There are less good statistics for white rhino mortalities as there has not
been a similar system of annual status reporting (that has been done since
1989 for black rhino by the SADC RMG).
However, a detailed study of an individual population in Hluhulwe-iMfolozi
by Prof Norman Owen-Smith indicates one can expect similar mortality rates
to those of black rhino. Based on a smaller sample size of mortalities for
individually known rhino in his Madlozi study area he recorded an average
white rhino mortality rate of 2.0% for adult white rhino and an average
3.5% mortality for calves with an overall mortality rate in his sample
(211.1 animal years observed) of 2.4%.
Another study by SANParks (Dr Sam Ferreira) in the Kruger National Park
estimated mortality rates of 1.7% for males and 0.7% for females.
---ooOoo---