You see, I left the government in 1998.
IsiZulu:
Bengingekho mina. [Uhleko.]
English:
If you have followed carefully the presentations to the relevant committees by the National Treasury officials, you'll have seen over a number of years that they provided you with a graph which showed the different scenarios which will materialise if certain things were not done or if certain contingent liabilities were to materialise. They have done that. It was very clear.
I must indicate to you that there is nothing like a precise number in economics. If you are talking about, for example, forecasting; if we forecast that economic growth is likely going to be 1,8% for 2019 and it comes out at 2,8%, you can't slaughter the forecaster for that. Why, because forecasting is based on the Ceteris Paribus Principle - all things remaining the same.
As of now, we would know what the oil price is today, which we will factor into the model but also look into what the other forecasters think is likely to happen and see what the possible outcome is. Now, if a war breaks out somewhere and the oil price spikes, the outcomes which you thought you were forecasting will be totally different or if the weather forecast gets it wrong and you suddenly end up with a huge drought like we experienced in certain parts of the country, the outcomes are going to be different.
Don't blame the officials at National Treasury. They aren't witchdoctors as such but they try to look a bit into the future based on the information at their disposal but they also benchmark with other colleagues in the other agencies. So, we knew, for example, that if Eskom is unable to carry its debt, part of which is a contingent liability, the outcomes will be a spike in the debt.
We knew that if SA Airways, SAA, doesn't come round properly and still relies on the support from the state; that will put pressure on the debt. We knew that with the immediate introduction of free higher education, some unbudgeted R57 billion immediately, that will immediately put pressure on the debt and so on.
The planning capacity is there, in fact, the Public Finance Management Act, PFMA, empowers the Minister of Finance to do macroeconomic co-ordination within the state and that's what we try to do to the best of our abilities. [Applause.] Thank you.