Thank you very much, Madam Speaker. The hon member is dead right. The real issue with the models is the fact that they came in as the outbreak was moving on. So their first assumptions were a little much wider in the sense that they took models from all over the world and they did not have direct data that was relating to what was going on South Africa. Over the past few weeks they have been trying to improve. The issue that is raised by the hon member about us uncertainty is one of the issues that is a challenge. The number of asymptomatic positive cases gives you a sense you estimate. If you find so many people with symptoms you need to have a sense of what percentage of the total number of infected people that is. It is a very difficult matter to clarify if you have not seen what the situation is in South Africa.
From the experience coming from different parts of the world the number would have ranged anything from 60% in some areas. In some instances they give you much larger figure and in some instances is much lower figure. It also does depend as well on the level at which people with mild symptoms might actually decide to go look for assistance. So it is a major issue of uncertainty that will make it difficult to be certain of what the models are telling us. That is why part of the debate that has come from other academics has been whether we can deal with this. For example, in one case they have estimated that South Africa will have a many as 12 million. This was raised by some people and even by members of the media were questioning. If some of the countries that are ahead of South Africa that have much bigger population have not even gone beyond two million in their own population, how do they think that this will happen. So it is a very reach area of debate. With regard to the question of deaths at the moment we were looking at a death rate of 1,9%. It varies and it depends on country to another. But on its own as well it does depend on the nature of the testing, the accuracy of the testing and also ensuring that we are able to define the issue of death in a particular way.
Our ministerial advisory committee has now been tasked to sit down and align the definition of death so that we have a similar understating of deaths moving from the confirmed case to cases where they suspected and in some instances posthumous swaps that need to be taken. It does become bit completed making the uncertainty even wider. I think the point that the member is raising is correct. We can only say that we will watch and look at the figures and as we get closer to reality as we check our own daily records, we will be able to know how reliable those models are. Thank you.