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NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
QUESTION FOR WRITTEN REPLY
QUESTION NO.: 1118
DATE OF PUBLICATION: 1 APRIL 2011
Mr S J F Marais (DA) to ask the Minister of Economic Development:
What are the permutations of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) and an
increase in employment up to 2020 to achieve the target of creating 5
million new jobs, as stipulated in the New Growth Plan?
NW1240E
REPLY
The following chart shows the permutations, measuring the employment
outcomes of given mixes of rate of GDP growth and employment intensity of
growth, starting with employment at 2010 levels. The permutations follow
from basic mathematical modeling and assume fixed rates of growth and
intensity over the period.
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In order to achieve the jobs target, we require strong growth combined with
a high employment intensity of growth (that is, the increase in employment
relative to GDP growth).
As it is intended that the jobs targets would be phased in, rising
progressively over the period, the growth and/or employment-intensities
would similarly have to rise over the ten-years.
Fluctuations and data problems (including changes in the surveys) make it
difficult to determine the historical employment intensities of growth with
accuracy. However, the available data suggest it was 0.8 from 1996 (Census
data) to the second quarter of 2010 (QLFS data); 0.5 from 2001 (LFS data)
to the second quarter of 2010 (QLFS data); and 0.67 from 2002 (LFS data) to
the second quarter of 2009 (QLFS data).
Based on the average for the period, an employment intensity of 0,5 would
require a growth rate of around 6.5%, 0,67 would require a growth rate of
4,5% whilst 0,8 would require a growth rate of 4%.