Chairperson, former President Clinton once famously quipped: "Compared to what?" Statistics are meaningful only when valid comparisons are made. So, when we examine the growth in tourism arrivals in 2010, compared to 2009, it is appropriate also to compare that growth to international trends.
At first blush the comparison is cause for satisfaction. Tourist arrivals in 2010 grew by nearly 1 062 000, which is a 15,1% increase on the equivalent figure for 2009. This statistic seems especially encouraging when compared to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation figure, which estimates that global tourism arrivals grew by 6,7% in 2010.
The fact that South Africa's tourist arrivals are more than double the international average is a credit to the Department of Tourism and, especially SA Tourism. Each and every presentation by these dedicated officials to the portfolio committee has impressed us with the subject knowledge, transparency and far-sighted strategic planning that is demonstrated.
Tourism has been prioritised as one of the six key sectors driving economic growth in the New Growth Path. So, a closer examination of the macrostatistics and other related variables is warranted. The first task is to compare apples with apples. The 309 000 Fifa World Cup 2010 visitors were a one-off event. We must, therefore, extract these numbers from the 2010 arrivals if a valid comparison to 2009 is to be obtained. A more realistic estimate of tourist arrival growth from 2009 to 2010 would therefore be 10,7%. Given that SA Tourism attributes 4% of our growth in tourism arrivals to the World Cup and 11% to other growth, this nuanced estimate seems more reliable.
A more precise analysis of trends can also be obtained if we exclude the World Cup months of June and July 2010 and compare the remaining months of 2009 to 2010. This comparison is cause for far more sober reflection. Tourism arrivals from January to May 2010 grew by a very impressive 15,7%. Counterintuitively, our tourist arrivals grew by only 11,5% between August and September 2010, compared to the equivalent period in 2009. While it is accepted that our country would have benefited from some pre-World Cup exposure, the fact that tourism growth slowed immediately after the World Cup must be cause for concern, particularly since world economic growth - with the exception of the Eurozone - has slowly but steadily improved in recent times.
If one deducts the 4% tourist arrival growth attributable to the World Cup dividend from the growth experienced in the latter half of last year, then the resulting growth of 7,5% is very similar to average world tourism growth. The inescapable conclusion is that the only real tourism growth we have experienced was due to the World Cup, and even that is significantly less than the 6% that Germany achieved after their World Cup in 2006. Why is this so? Why, even though we have performed relatively well, are we not performing to our full potential?
The first thing we are going to have to realise, as a nation and across all party-political lines, is that we live in an age when information is instantaneous, accessible and, in many forms, cheap. Between the Internet, Facebook and Twitter there is very little - both positive and negative - that escapes the attention of people we would like to attract as tourists.
Although the tourism market in areas like Khayelitsha and Guguletu has recovered from the so-called Dewani incident, the short-term impact was severe and illustrated just how profoundly negative shocks to tourist perceptions can and do affect our local markets. Perhaps more serious and long-term damage was done by the public sector strikes which dominated media headlines in September and October last year. The damage done to our brand by these unwanted and unnecessary events is illustrated by the compelling statistics provided to us by SA Tourism.
While our brand awareness remained steady through 2010, our brand positivity dropped from 43% in August 2010 to 35% by November 2010. The number of visitors who indicated that they would like to visit in the next 18 months declined from 14% to 10% over the same period. Similarly, we were ranked the lowest amongst eight destination competitors in regard to the key brand attributes of safety and security, and well below average compared to four other competitors. As you pointed out in your thoughtful address to the tourism summit on 28 February, Minister, we can't afford to ignore the challenges posed by new technologies and the new communication media.
If we want to be globally competitive in a world of immediate communication, surely the time has come to refrain from irresponsible talk that frightens potential investors. We also have to refrain from singing songs that belong to another era and scare away potential tourists. Surely there is a better way to resolve municipal strikes than trashing our streets, which ends up on billions of television screens by the same night, causing hundreds of thousands of potential visitors to say: "Anywhere but there".
Secondly, Minister, as I have said in this House on other occasions before, it beggars belief that we would spend R43 billion to host the 2010 Fifa World Cup as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to decisively rebrand our country, and then make savage cuts to the very budget that is needed to market our country after the event.
Programme 3 of the budget allocated to tourism growth has increased from R659 million in 2010-11 to R694 million in 2011-12. That is a R5,37% increase in nominal terms, and only 0,55% in real terms. Quite frankly, Minister, that is never going to be enough, particularly bearing in mind what we spent to create this marketing opportunity in the first place. As the entire portfolio committee has minuted, and I quote:
The tourism budget is not adequate, and the successful implementation of the tourism growth strategy requires substantial financial resources.
As a nation, we spend just 0,1% of our GDP in total on promoting tourism, compared to 0,6% and 0,7% by Australia and Brazil respectively. With our competitors so far ahead, we desperately need government to take the lead. Unfortunately, a decisive marketing edge will continue to elude us if all we can manage is an extra 0,5%.
If we cannot extract from government the advertising budget essential to meet our objectives, maybe the time has come to be bold and ask whether the Department of Tourism should not be merged with a bigger or/and more appropriate department with greater access to funds. The excellent officials that I have referred to must, obviously, be retained, but elsewhere savings could be facilitated, synergies obtained, and additional savings ploughed into SA Tourism's marketing budget.
The third and last reason is what I elaborated on in the debate last year, namely the interdependency of tourism with other departments. Hon Gumede also referred to it. As long as tourists are disappointed because local government or the Department of Arts and Culture has failed to ensure that our heritage sites and monuments enhance our country, we are going to damage our brand.
In Gauteng the Air Force Monument has now been repaired. However, Heroes' Acre is in an even worse state of vandalism, and tourists are greeted with fibreglass busts and headless angels upon their arrival. One can only imagine what tourists must think - perhaps, to quote Dante: "Abandon all hope ye who enter here." But perhaps real hope is no more than a month away.
Helen Zille's visit to the Mpophomeni Tourism Experience on 1 April was greeted by a district council vehicle frantically sucking up solid raw sewage as she arrived. However the bug weed and filth in this and other KwaZulu-Natal Midlands areas on a prime tourism route, the Midlands Meander, grows ever higher. Congella Park in eThekwini continues to have its fence broken down and vandalised.
Historic colonial architecture, such as the Donkin Street terraced houses in Nelson Mandela Bay, has further deteriorated since the debate last year, with seven houses burnt to the ground, squatting taking place and infrastructure gutted to the extent that these historic homes have now had their doors and windows bricked up. Nearby, Nelson Mandela Bay has lost all its Blue Flag beaches. Other popular attractions like Bay World and the Apple Express continue to be run down, due to insufficient funding and discontinued subsidies.
None of these problems is new or beyond our control. All of them undermine our tourist growth, damage our brand and constrain opportunity. I have to ask, Minister: Is anybody listening? Why is it so hard to get the basics right? Why are there so many people in government, both national and local, that don't appear to care?
Please act, Minister, and please act now. The fundamentals are in place. All we need is a bit more political will.